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Nvidia is now TSMC's largest customer with projected $33B annual revenue versus Apple's $27B, a position held by the iPhone maker for a decade
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TSMC's AI/HPC revenue jumped to 55% of net revenue in Q4 2025, up from 40% in 2022 when ChatGPT launched
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Nvidia sales are growing at 66% annually versus Apple's 6.4%—a 10x divergence that explains why manufacturing priorities are shifting
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The bottleneck is now clear: TSMC CEO C.C. Wei told investors the limiting factor in AI buildout is not demand but wafer supply capacity—expect $56B+ in annual capex through 2029
The moment is here. Nvidia has officially surpassed Apple as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s largest customer—a position Apple held throughout the iPhone era. This isn't a temporary market fluctuation. It's the structural inflection point where the semiconductor industry's customer hierarchy fundamentally reorders around AI infrastructure demand rather than consumer device volume. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang confirmed the shift on a recent podcast, citing projections that show [Nvidia generating $33 billion in TSMC revenue this year—22% of the foundry's total—versus Apple's $27 billion, or 18%.] This shift validates something the market has been pricing in but now confronts as supply-chain reality: AI infrastructure buildout isn't cyclical. It's structural.
Here's what just happened: The company that powered the last 15 years of computing—Apple with iPhones and MacBooks—has been replaced atop TSMC's customer list by the company powering the next 15 years: Nvidia. The numbers tell a story of wholesale industry reordering. According to analyst projections cited in the CNBC piece, Nvidia will generate $33 billion in TSMC revenue this year—roughly 22% of the foundry's total output. Apple is projected at $27 billion, or 18%. Not marginal. Structural.
Why does this matter? Because it reveals something investors have speculated about but supply chains validate with capital: AI infrastructure isn't a trend that will plateau. It's become the semiconductor industry's primary demand driver. TSMC's latest earnings showed HPC sales—dominated by Nvidia's AI chips—now represent 55% of the foundry's net revenue, up from 40% in 2022 when OpenAI released ChatGPT. In three years, one product category went from 40% to 55% of the world's most advanced chip manufacturer's output. That's not market share volatility. That's permanent restructuring.
The context matters too. Apple's decade-long TSMC dominance was built on volume and stability. iPhones meant predictable demand, predictable unit economics, and a customer wealthy enough to fund TSMC's aggressive investments in cutting-edge manufacturing nodes. That stability allowed TSMC to keep pushing process boundaries—moving from 28nm to 16nm to 7nm to today's 3nm—because Apple guaranteed they'd have a customer for each generation.
But Nvidia's AI chips operate on different economics. They're not just bigger than Apple's chips—they're exponentially more complex and more expensive to manufacture. Nvidia's Rubin chip, currently in full production at TSMC's 3nm process, costs substantially more per unit than an A-series iPhone processor. But here's the inflection: Nvidia's sales are growing at 66% annually while Apple grew just 6.4% last year. That's not competition. That's generational power transfer.
TSMC CEO C.C. Wei made the trajectory explicit on the earnings call. When describing his customers' improvements, he mentioned exactly one company by product name: "Hopper to Blackwell to Rubin—that almost doubles, triples their performance." These are Nvidia's AI accelerator generations. Apple didn't get a mention. More telling: when Wei was asked about an AI bubble, he didn't express doubt about demand. He expressed worry about supply. "I'm also very nervous about it. Because we have to invest about $52 billion to $56 billion for the CapEx." Translation: The bottleneck in AI infrastructure isn't customer demand. It's wafer capacity. And TSMC is investing tens of billions annually through 2029 to expand it.
Why now? Cloud providers are the true demand driver. Wei told investors that hyperscalers—Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Meta—are reaching out directly requesting TSMC capacity to support their AI infrastructure buildout. This isn't speculative demand. This is orders flowing from companies with collective market caps exceeding $10 trillion. They're committing capital because AI model performance directly correlates to revenue return. Energy efficiency on the latest manufacturing nodes matters because power costs are a material input to AI inference margins.
The precedent is instructive. When Intel dominated PCs and data centers, TSMC was a secondary foundry. Intel's shift to foundry services and struggles in advanced nodes opened the window for TSMC to become indispensable to AMD, Qualcomm, and Broadcom. But Nvidia crossing Apple is different. This isn't about a single competitor gaining ground. It's about a entire computing paradigm—consumer devices—losing primacy to another—AI infrastructure. The supply chain is physically reordering to match demand realities.
Consider the manufacturing commitment. TSMC projects 30% sales growth in 2025, with AI chips growing at a "mid-to-high-fifties" compound rate through 2029. That means by 2029, AI-driven revenue could represent 65-70% of TSMC's output. They're not hedging. They're going all-in. TSMC holds 70% of the global contract chip manufacturing market, and that concentration is deepening. Intel, who wanted to compete, just reported production delays and soft guidance, seeing its stock crater 13%. There's no viable second source for leading-edge AI chips. TSMC is the only foundry that can reliably produce Nvidia's latest products at scale.
Will Apple still buy? Yes. But not as the priority customer. They'll get capacity when Nvidia's orders are filled. That changes procurement timing, power-efficiency requirements, and go-to-market strategies. For enterprises and cloud providers, it signals that chip allocation will favor AI acceleration. For chip startups pitching custom AI silicon, it means competing directly against TSMC's most important customer—an uphill battle.
The inflection is now supply-chain reality. Nvidia's displacement of Apple as TSMC's top customer validates that AI infrastructure has structurally replaced consumer devices as the semiconductor industry's primary demand driver. For investors, this signals the multi-year capital intensity cycle is locked in—TSMC will invest $52-56B annually through 2029. For enterprise decision-makers, it means AI infrastructure costs will remain elevated because manufacturing bottlenecks, not competition, will drive pricing. For builders, it confirms that supply access to leading-edge nodes will correlate with AI workload demand. For professionals in semiconductors and infrastructure, the career pivot is clear: the industry's center of gravity has permanently shifted from mobile-first to AI-first. Watch TSMC's next earnings in April for actual revenue split confirmation and updated capex guidance.





